October 2026 Market Update: Rates Went Up, but Buyers Still Have Negotiating Room

Here's a hypothetical example, not a real client story. Imagine a couple, Meera and Arjun, who have rented a two-bedroom in Brampton for four years. They've saved, they were pre-approved over the summer, and they've just started touring townhouses. Then, on October 28, the Bank of Canada raises its policy rate, and Meera asks the question we hear a lot this fall: "Did we just miss our chance?"

Here's how we'd walk a couple like them through TRREB's October numbers, which came out on November 4.

What October 2026 actually showed

TRREB's October 2026 Market Watch compares this October with October 2025. Across the whole TRREB area:

• 5,603 homes sold, down 7.9% from 6,083 in October 2025.
• The average selling price was $1,024,108, down 2.7% from $1,052,539. The median was $860,000.
• 14,173 new listings came on the market, down 11.9% from 16,080.
• 25,098 active listings were on the market at the end of October, down 10.0% from 27,899 a year earlier.
• Homes sold for 97% of their list price on average.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales, new listings, the average price and the MLS® HPI Composite benchmark all edged up from September 2026.

The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate a quarter point, to 2.50%, on October 28. TRREB's Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, noted that while borrowing costs have increased, "the impact on monthly mortgage payments has been mitigated by lower selling prices, helping keep affordability in check."

Fewer listings than last year, but buyers still have negotiating room

To be clear about the comparison: there were fewer homes for sale this October than last October, not more. Active listings fell 10.0% and new listings fell 11.9% year over year, a bit faster than sales (down 7.9%). TRREB's release doesn't report a month-over-month change in active listings.

What buyers still have is time and negotiating room. The active listings on the market equal about 4.6 months of inventory (TRREB's 12-month moving average of active listings divided by sales), homes sold at 97% of list price on average, and Mercer said "GTA homebuyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year."

How long homes took to sell: 31 days vs. 49 days

TRREB reports two different "days on market" averages, and they measure different things:

• Average listing days on market (LDOM): 31 days, the same as October 2025. This counts only the days the listing that actually sold was on the market.
• Average property days on market (PDOM): 49 days, compared with 50 in October 2025. This counts the total days the property was on the market before it sold, including earlier listings of the same property by the same seller and brokerage during the original listing contract period (for example, a home that was taken off the market and relisted).

The gap between the two tells you that some homes were relisted before they sold, so the days shown on a current listing can understate how long a property has really been for sale.

Townhouse prices for a hypothetical budget

Our hypothetical couple wants a townhouse with a small yard, ideally under $800,000. To compare like with like, every figure below is the October 2026 median sale price for TRREB's Att/Row/Townhouse category (attached and row townhouses; condo townhouses are reported separately), with the number of sales in brackets. Some areas had only a handful of townhouse sales, so treat those medians as a rough guide, not a price tag.

• All TRREB areas: $830,000 (508 sales)
• Brampton: $726,000 (53 sales)
• Durham Region: $690,000 (75 sales), including Oshawa $622,500 (11), Clarington $637,495 (16) and Whitby $725,000 (19)
• Simcoe County: Bradford West Gwillimbury $756,500 (6), New Tecumseth $691,900 (5) and Innisfil $666,500 (4)
• Georgina, on Lake Simcoe: $766,250 (2)

For context on supply, and this is across all home types, not just townhouses: months of inventory in the areas above ranged from about 3.0 in Whitby to 7.4 in Innisfil, so buyers in places like Innisfil have more listings to compare relative to recent sales.

Good news for sellers, too

If you own a home, October's numbers are steady and encouraging. New listings fell 11.9% from a year ago to 14,173, so fewer newly listed homes are competing for buyers' attention. Att/Row/Townhouse homes across TRREB sold at 99% of list price on average, and semi-detached homes at 101%. Well-priced, well-prepared homes are still selling close to (or above) their list price.

TRREB's President, Daniel Steinfeld, also pointed out that clearer news on trade and inflation could "renew interest in homeownership as we move into 2027." Sellers who prepare now can be ready for that demand, and buyers who shop now can do it before it returns.

What a buyer in their position could do

In our hypothetical example, a sensible next step would be to refresh the pre-approval with a rate hold, set up saved searches for townhouses in Brampton, Bradford and Whitby, and book a few showings. That's a plan, not a result: every buyer's numbers and timing are different.

Thinking about your next move?

The Jennifer Jones Team, LPT Realty, Brokerage serves all of South & Central Ontario, from Toronto, Peel and Durham to York Region, Simcoe County and Lake Simcoe.

• Wondering what your home is worth this fall? Book a free home evaluation.
• Ready to see what's out there? Search homes on jj.team.

Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026 (released Nov. 4, 2026): year-over-year summary (page 1), all home types by municipality (page 3), semi-detached (page 9), Att/Row/Townhouse (page 11) and notes (page 27). Bank of Canada rate announcement, Oct. 28, 2026. Speak with your lender about your own numbers.

Meera and Arjun are a hypothetical example, not real clients, and no client outcome is described.