September 2026 · South & Central Ontario (TRREB)

September 2026 South & Central Ontario Market Report

September 2026 gave home buyers across South & Central Ontario more room to breathe. Across the TRREB area, 5,040 homes sold at an average price of $1,006,409, 5.1% lower than a year ago, so buying is more attainable than it was last fall. Homes still sold for 98% of their asking price on average, which means well-priced homes continue to find buyers.

By The Jennifer Jones Team · 2026-10-20

At a glance

Headline statistics by region, September 2026
Metric	TRREB area overall	York Region	Simcoe County & Lake Simcoe
Average price	$1,006,409	$1,136,650	$768,850
Median price	$860,000	$1,043,000	$690,000
Sales	5,040	893	611
New listings	16,500	3,106	2,147
Active listings	26,131	5,168	4,305
Months of inventory (TRREB trend)	4.6	5.0	6.3
Avg. days on market	34	38	46
Sale-to-list ratio	98%	97%	96%

TRREB area overall

Across the TRREB area, 5,040 homes sold in September, 9.0% fewer than a year ago, while new listings fell even further, by 14.4%, to 16,500. With 26,131 active listings and about 4.6 months of inventory, buyers have real choice and time to compare homes. The average price of $1,006,409 is 5.1% lower than last September, so buying is more affordable. For sellers, there are fewer new listings to compete with, and homes sold for 98% of asking on average, so homes that are well prepared and well priced are still selling close to their list price. TRREB's Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, noted 'substantial pent-up demand in the GTA', so buyers who are ready now get first pick before those households return.

Year over year

Sales: −9.0% (5,540 in Sept. 2025)
Average price: −5.1% ($1,060,036 in Sept. 2025)
New listings: −14.4% (19,270 in Sept. 2025)
Active listings: −9.3% (28,813 in Sept. 2025)
Avg. listing days on market: 34 vs 33 (+3.0%)
Avg. property days on market: 51 vs 51 (0.0%)
MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: −4.7%

York Region

York Region recorded 893 sales in September at an average price of $1,136,650 and a median of $1,043,000. With 5,168 active listings, or about 5.0 months of inventory, buyers can compare options across communities from Vaughan and Markham to Aurora and East Gwillimbury without feeling rushed. Homes averaged 38 days on market and sold for 97% of list price. Sellers who price with care and present their home well are still getting close to asking. In Georgina on Lake Simcoe, 49 homes sold at a median of $775,000, one of the most accessible price points in York Region for lakeside living. With TD Economics (Sept. 29, 2026) expecting Ontario sales to rise next year, sellers planning a spring 2027 move can get ready now.

Simcoe County & Lake Simcoe

Across Simcoe County, 611 homes sold in September at an average of $768,850 and a median of $690,000. That's well below the TRREB-wide average, which makes the area great value for buyers moving north from the GTA. Sales eased 15.8% from a year ago and active listings dipped 5.2% to 4,305, so buyers have about 6.3 months of inventory to choose from and room to negotiate. Detached homes made up 76% of sales and averaged $831,977, just 1.7% below last year, a sign of steady values for owners. Around the lake, Barrie (median $637,500), Innisfil ($707,500) and Orillia ($543,500) offer a wide range of price points for buyers who want to be near the water.

Year over year

Sales: −15.8% (726 in Sept. 2025)
Average price: −2.9% ($791,705 in Sept. 2025)
New listings: −13.8% (2,491 in Sept. 2025)
Active listings: −5.2% (4,539 in Sept. 2025)
Avg. listing days on market: 46 vs 44 (+4.5%)
Detached average price: $831,977 (−1.7%)

Economic outlook

On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its overnight policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, up from 2.25% — its first increase since July 2023. The Bank Rate is now 2.75% and the deposit rate 2.45%. The Bank said the move aims to keep high energy prices from spreading into broader inflation.

Inflation is running a little warm but not out of control. CPI inflation was 3.1% in September; excluding gasoline it was 2.2%, and the Bank's core measures remain near 2%. The Bank now expects inflation to rise to about 3.5% by year-end, average about 3% in 2027, and return to its 2% target around mid-2028. It projects economic growth of about 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and 2028, while expecting new U.S. tariffs to slow activity in the fourth quarter and housing to remain relatively weak.

The Bank said there could be a need to raise rates further, but it will proceed carefully. Its next rate decision is December 9, 2026.

Economists were split on the decision. Market pricing and several banks — BMO, Scotiabank, Desjardins and RBC Dominion Securities — moved to expect the hike, while CIBC's Avery Shenfeld warned a hike could be premature and RBC economists argued the case for patience was strong. Six of seven members of the C.D. Howe Institute's monetary policy council had recommended a hold.

What it means for buyers and owners: major lenders are expected to raise their prime rates, so variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs will cost more. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, which had already climbed this fall. If you're shopping, a pre-approval with a rate hold is a simple way to protect your borrowing power, and The Jennifer Jones Team, LPT Realty, Brokerage can help you plan your next move around the new rate picture.

Forecasts are third-party opinions, not guarantees.

Outlook sources

Whether you're buying your first home, moving up or downsizing, The Jennifer Jones Team, LPT Realty, Brokerage can show you what these numbers mean for your street and your plans.

Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, and TRREB Simcoe County Market Watch, September 2026.

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