September 2026 · South & Central Ontario (TRREB)
September 2026 South & Central Ontario Market Report
September 2026 gave home buyers across South & Central Ontario more room to breathe. Across the TRREB area, 5,040 homes sold at an average price of $1,006,409, 5.1% lower than a year ago, so buying is more attainable than it was last fall. Homes still sold for 98% of their asking price on average, which means well-priced homes continue to find buyers.
By The Jennifer Jones Team · 2026-10-20
At a glance
| Metric | TRREB area overall | York Region | Simcoe County & Lake Simcoe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average price | $1,006,409 | $1,136,650 | $768,850 |
| Median price | $860,000 | $1,043,000 | $690,000 |
| Sales | 5,040 | 893 | 611 |
| New listings | 16,500 | 3,106 | 2,147 |
| Active listings | 26,131 | 5,168 | 4,305 |
| Months of inventory (TRREB trend) | 4.6 | 5.0 | 6.3 |
| Avg. days on market | 34 | 38 | 46 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 98% | 97% | 96% |
TRREB area overall
Across the TRREB area, 5,040 homes sold in September, 9.0% fewer than a year ago, while new listings fell even further, by 14.4%, to 16,500. With 26,131 active listings and about 4.6 months of inventory, buyers have real choice and time to compare homes. The average price of $1,006,409 is 5.1% lower than last September, so buying is more affordable. For sellers, there are fewer new listings to compete with, and homes sold for 98% of asking on average, so homes that are well prepared and well priced are still selling close to their list price. TRREB's Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, noted 'substantial pent-up demand in the GTA', so buyers who are ready now get first pick before those households return.
Year over year
- Sales: −9.0% (5,540 in Sept. 2025)
- Average price: −5.1% ($1,060,036 in Sept. 2025)
- New listings: −14.4% (19,270 in Sept. 2025)
- Active listings: −9.3% (28,813 in Sept. 2025)
- Avg. listing days on market: 34 vs 33 (+3.0%)
- Avg. property days on market: 51 vs 51 (0.0%)
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: −4.7%
York Region
York Region recorded 893 sales in September at an average price of $1,136,650 and a median of $1,043,000. With 5,168 active listings, or about 5.0 months of inventory, buyers can compare options across communities from Vaughan and Markham to Aurora and East Gwillimbury without feeling rushed. Homes averaged 38 days on market and sold for 97% of list price. Sellers who price with care and present their home well are still getting close to asking. In Georgina on Lake Simcoe, 49 homes sold at a median of $775,000, one of the most accessible price points in York Region for lakeside living. With TD Economics (Sept. 29, 2026) expecting Ontario sales to rise next year, sellers planning a spring 2027 move can get ready now.
Simcoe County & Lake Simcoe
Across Simcoe County, 611 homes sold in September at an average of $768,850 and a median of $690,000. That's well below the TRREB-wide average, which makes the area great value for buyers moving north from the GTA. Sales eased 15.8% from a year ago and active listings dipped 5.2% to 4,305, so buyers have about 6.3 months of inventory to choose from and room to negotiate. Detached homes made up 76% of sales and averaged $831,977, just 1.7% below last year, a sign of steady values for owners. Around the lake, Barrie (median $637,500), Innisfil ($707,500) and Orillia ($543,500) offer a wide range of price points for buyers who want to be near the water.
Year over year
- Sales: −15.8% (726 in Sept. 2025)
- Average price: −2.9% ($791,705 in Sept. 2025)
- New listings: −13.8% (2,491 in Sept. 2025)
- Active listings: −5.2% (4,539 in Sept. 2025)
- Avg. listing days on market: 46 vs 44 (+4.5%)
- Detached average price: $831,977 (−1.7%)
Economic outlook
The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% at every decision this year, most recently on September 2, 2026. That's less than half the 5% peak of 2023–24, so buyers have a steady, predictable base to plan around. In its July 2026 Monetary Policy Report, the Bank projected economic growth of 0.7% this year and 1.8% in 2027, with inflation easing back to its 2% target in early 2027. Its next rate announcement, with an updated Monetary Policy Report, is on October 28, 2026.
Economists differ on what comes next. TD Economics (Sept. 29, 2026) assumes the Bank stays on hold through 2027, and RBC Economics expects no change this year, followed by modest increases in 2027. CIBC Economics had pencilled in a first increase for January 2027 and said on Oct. 19 that it could come sooner, while Scotiabank Economics (Oct. 13 and 19, 2026) expects a quarter-point increase on October 28 and a 3.25% policy rate in 2027. Fixed mortgage rates have already moved up with bond yields this fall, according to CREA (Oct. 16, 2026). For buyers, a pre-approval with a rate hold is a simple way to protect today's borrowing power while you shop.
Forecasters broadly expect Ontario's market to pick up in 2027. RBC Economics' mid-year housing outlook projects Ontario home sales rising 8.2% in 2027, with prices edging up 0.7%. TD Economics (Sept. 29, 2026) expects Ontario sales to rise next year, helping prices stabilize after this year's pullback. CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook update (July 22, 2026) forecasts Toronto-area MLS® sales rising from 63,500 in 2026 to 71,500 in 2027, and the average price from about $1,020,000 to $1,050,000. Nationally, CREA (Oct. 16, 2026) expects sales to climb 4.4% in 2027.
For buyers, that adds up to a window of opportunity. TD describes Ontario's market as currently "heavily skewed in favour of buyers," and CREA expects Ontario's average price to finish 2026 about 3% lower than in 2025, so you can shop with more choice and negotiating room before pent-up demand returns. For sellers, the forecasts point to more buyers in 2027. Listing now means less competition, since new listings across TRREB were down 14.4% in September, while preparing for spring 2027 lines you up with the expected rebound. Either way, The Jennifer Jones Team, LPT Realty, Brokerage will build a plan around your timing.
Forecasts are third-party opinions, not guarantees.
Outlook sources
- Bank of Canada – Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼% (rate decision) (2026-09-02)
- Bank of Canada – Policy interest rate history and 2026 schedule (accessed 2026-10-20)
- Bank of Canada – Monetary Policy Report July 2026, Projections (2026-07-15)
- Bank of Canada – MPR press conference opening statement (2026-07-15)
- CREA – CREA Revises Resale Housing Market Forecast (2026-10-16)
- CMHC – Summer Update: 2026 Housing Market Outlook (2026-07-22)
- RBC Economics – Mid-year outlook for Canada's housing market: Between correction and recovery (2026)
- TD Economics – Provincial Resale Market Outlook: High Borrowing Costs Set to Restrain Housing (2026-09-29)
- Scotiabank Economics – Scotiabank Forecast: Tighter Financial Conditions Meet a Resilient Economy (2026-10-13)
- Scotiabank Economics – Scotia Flash: Bank of Canada to Hike Next Week (2026-10-19)
- Canadian Mortgage Professional – Bank of Canada's next move: what top economists are saying (2026-10-19)
- TRREB Market Watch, September 2026 (2026-10-06)
Whether you're buying your first home, moving up or downsizing, The Jennifer Jones Team, LPT Realty, Brokerage can show you what these numbers mean for your street and your plans.
Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, and TRREB Simcoe County Market Watch, September 2026.
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