October 2026 · South & Central Ontario (TRREB)
October 2026 South & Central Ontario Market Report
October 2026 brought a steadier tone for home buyers and sellers across South & Central Ontario. Across the TRREB area, 5,603 homes sold at an average price of $1,024,108, 2.7% lower than a year ago, and on a seasonally adjusted basis sales rose and prices edged up from September. With 25,098 homes for sale and about 4.6 months of inventory, buyers have real choice, while homes still sold for 97% of their asking price on average.
By The Jennifer Jones Team · 2026-11-09
At a glance
| Metric | TRREB area overall | York Region | Simcoe County & Lake Simcoe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average price | $1,024,108 | $1,142,789 | $822,574 |
| Median price | $860,000 | $1,050,000 | $775,000 |
| Sales | 5,603 | 1,038 | 157 |
| New listings | 14,173 | 2,663 | 482 |
| Active listings | 25,098 | 4,932 | 1,038 |
| Months of inventory (TRREB trend) | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.9 |
| Avg. days on market | 31 | 33 | 37 |
| Sale-to-list ratio | 97% | 97% | 96% |
TRREB area overall
Across the TRREB area, 5,603 homes sold in October, 7.9% fewer than a year ago, and on a seasonally adjusted basis sales, new listings, the average price and the MLS® HPI Composite all moved up from September. With 25,098 active listings, about 4.6 months of inventory, and an average price of $1,024,108 that is 2.7% lower than last October, buyers can compare homes and negotiate with confidence. TRREB's Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, noted that while borrowing costs have increased, "the impact on monthly mortgage payments has been mitigated by lower selling prices, helping keep affordability in check." For sellers, new listings fell 11.9% to 14,173, so there's less competition, and homes sold for 97% of asking after an average of 31 days.
Year over year
- Sales: −7.9% (6,083 in Oct. 2025)
- Average price: −2.7% ($1,052,539 in Oct. 2025)
- New listings: −11.9% (16,080 in Oct. 2025)
- Active listings: −10.0% (27,899 in Oct. 2025)
- Avg. listing days on market: 31 vs 31 (0.0%)
- Avg. property days on market: 49 vs 50 (−2.0%)
- MLS® HPI Composite benchmark: −4.3%
York Region
York Region recorded 1,038 sales in October at an average price of $1,142,789 and a median of $1,050,000. With 4,932 active listings, or about 5.0 months of inventory, buyers have time to compare communities from Vaughan and Markham to Aurora and East Gwillimbury. Homes sold for 97% of list price after an average of 33 days, so well-priced homes are still selling close to asking. Newmarket was one of the region's quicker markets, with 98 sales at a median of $875,000 after 28 days on average, while Georgina on Lake Simcoe offered lakeside living at a median of $740,000 across 71 sales.
Simcoe County & Lake Simcoe
In the southern Simcoe County communities covered by TRREB's October Market Watch (Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth), 157 homes sold at an average of $822,574 and a median of $775,000, well below the TRREB-wide average. With 1,038 active listings and about 5.9 months of inventory, buyers moving north from the GTA have plenty of choice and room to negotiate, and homes sold for 96% of asking after 37 days on average. On Lake Simcoe, Innisfil (median $756,000, 40 sales) offers about 7.4 months of inventory, while Bradford West Gwillimbury (median $840,500, 34 sales) moved faster at about 4.6 months, a good sign for owners thinking of selling.
Economic outlook
Rates Are Edging Higher, but Ontario Buyers Still Have the Upper Hand
On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.50%, its first increase since 2023. In its October Monetary Policy Report, the Bank said CPI inflation, around 3% since April because of high oil prices, is expected to reach about 3.5% by year-end, average about 3% in 2027 and return to 2% by the middle of 2028, while core inflation remains close to 2%. It projects economic growth of 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027 and 2028, with housing expected to remain relatively weak. The Bank said "there could be a need to increase the policy rate further" but that it will "proceed carefully." Its next decision is December 9, 2026, and the next Monetary Policy Report is January 27, 2027.
Bank economists agree that rates are more likely to rise than fall over the next year, but they expect the increases to be modest. Scotiabank Economics (Oct. 28) expects another hike in December and a 3.25% peak in the first half of 2027. RBC Economics (Oct. 28) called the move "essentially a risk management hike" and expects another increase in December or January. TD Economics (Oct. 29) expects one more hike in January, to 2.75%, and CIBC's Avery Shenfeld (Nov. 2) expects a pause in December, then a January hike to a 2.75% peak. Desjardins' Ontario Housing Outlook (Oct. 21) assumed two hikes starting in late October. Even the highest of these forecasts is well below the 5% peak of 2023.
Forecasters still expect Ontario's housing market to improve in 2027. Desjardins (Oct. 21, 2026) forecasts Ontario home sales rising nearly 5% to about 167,000 next year, with average prices up about 2.4% after a 3.4% dip in 2026, a partial recovery in balanced market conditions. CREA (Oct. 16, 2026) expects national sales to rise 4.4% in 2027 after Ontario's average price eases about 3% this year. In its Nov. 6 local markets update, RBC Economics noted that active listings in the Toronto area are now 10% below a year ago and that this drawdown in inventory is helping slow price declines, and said it expects recovery to prevail, though the road may be bumpy.
For buyers, that means today's lower prices and wide selection help offset higher borrowing costs, and a pre-approval with a rate hold protects your budget while you shop. For sellers, shrinking inventory and fewer new listings mean less competition now, and getting ready for spring 2027 lines you up with the expected pickup in sales. Either way, The Jennifer Jones Team, LPT Realty, Brokerage can build a plan around your timing.
Forecasts are third-party opinions, not guarantees.
Outlook sources
- Bank of Canada – Bank of Canada raises the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2½% (incl. Oct. 2026 MPR projections; next dates Dec. 9, 2026 and Jan. 27, 2027) (2026-10-28)
- Scotiabank Economics – Scotia Flash: Kudos to the Bank of Canada (December hike expected; 3.25% terminal rate by 2027H1) (2026-10-28)
- RBC Economics – Bank of Canada applies preventative medicine: Hikes rates as inflation risks grow (2026-10-28)
- TD Economics – Dollars & Sense: The Bank of Canada Takes Out Inflation Insurance (January hike to 2.75%) (2026-10-29)
- Canadian Mortgage Trends – CIBC questions BoC's inflation outlook, sees December pause (2026-11-02)
- Desjardins Economic Studies – Ontario Housing Outlook: Condos, Cottages, Copper Country and Canada's Capital (2026-10-21)
- CREA – Quarterly forecast update (2027 national sales +4.4%; Ontario avg price −3% in 2026) (2026-10-16)
- RBC Economics – Canada's housing markets carry minimal momentum through fall (2026-11-06)
Whether you're buying your first home, moving up or downsizing, The Jennifer Jones Team, LPT Realty, Brokerage serves all of South & Central Ontario and can show you what these numbers mean for your street and your plans.
Source: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026.
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